The emerging trends from the Tuesday, June 4 Lok Sabha elections nearly caught everyone off guard. The BJP, whom the exit polls indicated would be comfortably positioned over 300 seats, found it difficult to secure a majority (272), while the INDI alliance proved they are still a formidable opponent.
As the afternoon drew on, trends began to hold, and the saffron party was estimated to have 240 seats, 32 fewer than the absolute majority needed to claim the centre administration. However, the BJP was easily well past the majority with its NDA allies. With the primary leadership of the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh and the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, the INDI alliance surprised observers and demonstrated remarkable results.
As a result, the INDI alliance secured almost 230 seats, a remarkable turnaround for an alliance that had finished with less than 150 seats in the 2019 national elections, while the NDA hovered around the 290–295 mark. With 99 seats, Congress presently has a lead over the Samajwadi Party with 37 and the Trinamool Congress with 29.
Conversely, with 240 seats to its credit, the BJP emerged as the single largest party in the elections. Given that it was accomplished after ten years in office and against anti-incumbency sentiment, voter apathy, and propaganda from left-leaning media portals, the accomplishment is remarkable. The saffron party will form a government at the centre and has made history.
But even as the NDA triumphed mathematically, the Congress party, which could barely muster a three-figure majority and will go on to form the opposition for a third term in a row, declared victory (possibly for having prevented the NDA from surpassing 400) and blamed the BJP for failing to muster a majority on its own.
Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge declared that Modi had lost both morally and politically, pointing to the lack of a clear mandate from a single party, even as the BJP is poised to establish a government at the federal level with the support of its NDA alliance partner.
One party did not receive a resounding majority from the electorate. The BJP asked for one candidate’s votes. “The mandate is against Modiji,” Kharge declared on Tuesday night at a press conference.
But it is extremely funny that a party that is still happy to be in the opposition and play second, if not third, fiddle to regional parties, can boast about how well they performed, even though it did not affect their standing in the legislature, and can make fun of their rivals who are once again expected to move back towards the centre. The BJP made history by regaining power three times in a row, despite having a smaller majority.
The Congress party performed remarkably well in this election, as did the opposition parties that were members of the INDI coalition. They sent more MPs to parliament than they did in 2014 and 2019, and they were able to keep the BJP below the majority threshold. Nonetheless, the BJP remains in the lead and is poised to establish a central administration. They have secured more than twice as many seats in the Lok Sabha as the Congress has. This suggests that despite all of their enthusiasm and boasting about cutting into their lead, the BJP has not suffered electorally. True, it could have an impact on them politically as coalition partners would make their voices heard, but the BJP has shown that it can work with its coalition partner to ensure good administration.
Naturally, the BJP hasn’t performed up to the public’s expectations. To avoid being at the mercy of their coalition colleagues’ whims, they should have secured the majority on their own. However, the BJP is the one party that would examine its mistakes in detail and use the knowledge gained to change its direction. This was demonstrated following the Karnataka state elections when the BJP was destroyed as a result of internal strife and poor decision-making that alienated the party’s core support base.
In the ensuing assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ensured that its gaffes in Karnataka would not happen anywhere else. Its voting apparatus performed flawlessly, surpassing predictions and securing remarkable wins in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.
However, the BJP should also share some of the blame for the current outcome, as it changed the bar so far that its followers were unhappy even after it won 240 seats on its own. A decade ago, any leader or BJP follower would have cheerfully accepted and considered 240 seats as a historic win for the party. However, the expectations are so high in 2024 that any result that falls short of a complete majority is seen as the party’s complete collapse. By this measure, it might take the Congress party a long time to build an absolute majority administration at the centre.
Furthermore, as seen by its three consecutive electoral losses in general elections, Congress is likewise resistant to changing its direction. Even though he is not the president, the Gandhi scion still serves as the party’s leader and essentially makes all of the party’s decisions. Rather than reflecting on its shortcomings, the Congress has occupied itself with making fun of and celebrating the BJP’s diminished influence in the legislature.
Following the election results, Congress behaved in a manner reminiscent of a student who had given up on passing the exam and then proceeded to make fun of the class top scorer, who was unhappy that they had not achieved their desired score. It was funny to watch the Congress declare victory and make fun of the BJP as they prepared the opposition benches for another five years under the Modi administration.