Hard numbers are what really important, not jargon or fancy language. It is time to examine some facts from the 2019 Lok Sabha elections as the confetti from two enormous opposition gatherings begins to settle. Can the highly publicized INDIA close the gap with the NDA? To begin with, it doesn’t seem to be that simple.
WINNING SEATS BASED ON POLLED VOTES, NDA IS BETTER
News18 analyzed the 2019 Lok Sabha statistics to identify the candidates who received 50% of the total vote on either side. To put it another way, it should signify a clear victory, and based on that, the NDA won 241 of these parliamentary seats whereas INDIA only gained 68. When the 2024 elections roll around, the opposition coalition will have a 173-point gap to close.
The NDA received five seats, whereas INDIA received none, among those who received more than 70% of the vote, which should indicate a convincing victory. India outperforms NDA in terms of electoral success, as candidates get 35 to 40 percent of the vote. New Alliance candidates won 88 of these seats, while NDA candidates took home 35. The distance of 173 is larger than the gap of 53, however.
MORE DEPOSITS WERE LOST TO INDIA
Losing deposits in an election is a major PR setback for candidates as well as the political party from which they are fielded. When fewer than 16.66 percent of the total number of votes cast were cast, lost deposits are taken into consideration. Data from the 2019 Lok Sabha election show that INDIA has a staggering 422 such candidates, compared to the NDA’s 130.
In this area, the lower the number, the better. In favor of NDA, there is a disparity of 292 such candidates. However, it’s vital to remember that this information does not include unsuccessful Shiv Sena and NCP candidates since it is unknown what party they now belong to.
SEATS WITH A NARROW WINNING MARGIN
Both NDA and INDIA are practically on level in terms of this statistics. The two parties are neck-and-neck in terms of gaining seats with less than a 2 percent victory margin, with NDA having 10 and INDIA having 9. NDA won 24 of the seats with a less than 5% victory margin, while INDIA won 15 of them. Simply stated, these 58 seats might be up for grabs in the next season, so neither party should get comfortable.
WHEN IT COMES TO WOMEN CANDIDATES, BOTH AT PAR
When it came to providing tickets to women, none of the coalitions fared very well. In 2019, the NDA had 11.09 percent women running for office, whereas 13.24 percent of INDIA parties issued tickets to women. However, this information once again excludes losing candidates from the NCP and Shiv Sena.
While the NDA had 13.51 percent of the victorious female candidates and INDIA had 13.28 percent, the margin was vanishingly small.
OLD HANDLES, YOUNG BLOOD
If the 2019 Lok Sabha statistics is taken into consideration, INDIA is marginally better than NDA when it comes to providing young people a chance. Candidates under the age of 40 made up 20.4% of the new alliance’s pool, compared to 11.26 percent of the NDA’s.
In a similar vein, INDIA chose older candidates than NDA since 8.87 percent of its candidates were above the age of 70. They had 2.56 percent of applicants in this category that were NDA. Once again, the NCP and Shiv Sena losing candidates are not included in this statistics.
WHO IS LEADER, then?
Age and demographic information has less bearing on election outcomes than the percentage of votes cast and the margin of victory. NDA is much ahead of India there.
For instance, INDIA must close a huge difference of 173 seats between the victors with 50% of the vote, which is undoubtedly a difficult task considering that the election is still more than a year away. Even a week in politics is a long time, but the NDA looks to be in much better control than INDIA, which seems to know what it wants but has no idea how to get there.