Prime Minister Narendra Modi proclaimed his party’s ambition of taking power in Kerala, where the two major political formations—the governing CPI(M) and the opposition Congress—are the main participants.
On March 2, Modi proclaimed his Kerala ambition, bolstered by the BJP’s victory in the Christian-majority states of Nagaland and Meghalaya.
Four weeks later, the saffron party startled its political opponents in the southern state by bringing on board Anil K Antony, son of prominent Congress politician and former Kerala Chief Minister A K Antony.
The BJP is projecting him as one of its key minority faces in the southern state, and it now claims that many Christians and Muslims would join the party in the coming days, since the political landscape in Kerala has shifted radically.
The CPI(M) and the Congress, on the other hand, argue that Modi’s fantasies of taking power in ‘God’s Own Country’ would never come true.
To get even near to the Prime Minister’s ambitions, the BJP recognizes that it must take a different strategy in Kerala than it has in other North Indian states, and is currently working hard to make inroads into the SC/ST and OBC populations, in addition to concentrating on minorities.
“BJP is expanding in Kerala election after election,” observed Dr. Sajad Ibrahim, a well-known psephologist and political science professor at Kerala University.
But, he is quick to point out that Kerala, with over half of its vote made up of minorities, would prevent the BJP from making big gains.
He also cited the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDAinability )’s to enlist any significant political party in Kerala as a key factor for the BJP’s failure to win anything in Kerala.
Despite not having a single Assembly member or a Lok Sabha MP, the BJP controls two municipalities and 19 grama panchayats in the southern state.
“The political landscape in Kerala has shifted tremendously.” Shri Anil Antony, the son of A K Antony, has joined the Bharatiya Janata Party. “So many people are eager to join the BJP, particularly from minority groups,” George Kurien, the BJP’s Kerala state general secretary, told PTI.
The BJP has long recognized that they cannot win seats in Kerala just on the basis of factional support from the upper castes, and that they must also gain the support of minorities, SC/STs, and OBCs.
Despite the party has boosted its vote percentage from the numerically powerful Ezhava group, a key vote bank of the CPI(M), since 2016, minority votes for the BJP remain fewer than 1%.
“The BJP has resolved to work from the ground up.” “We are currently undertaking the people connect project by visiting each of the households in our region, or by holding family gatherings, combining 10 or more houses to generate awareness,” said K Sasikumar, BJP’s Nemom constituency vice president.
Using the Sabarimala women’s admission issue, the BJP might make substantial inroads into the CPI(M) vote share during the 2019 General Elections.
Nevertheless, the CPI(M) believes that the majority of individuals who deserted and voted for the BJP in the 2019 elections have since returned to the party.
“We have now realized that they are also interested in our base, which is primarily the scheduled caste and backward class in Kerala,” said Thomas Isaac, a prominent CPI(M) politician and former Kerala finance minister.
Yet, the BJP would never make a substantial gain in Kerala since the Hindu population will not accept the BJP’s communalist doctrine, according to Isaac.
He said that it is incorrect to imply that minorities are preventing the BJP from obtaining political power, and that it is the Hindu community that is giving them problems.
“The Hindu community in Kerala has a totally distinct mentality. “They’ve never been communal in that manner; they’ve always been a very secular group,” Isaac said.
Nonetheless, a shift in the nature of the general electorate is keeping the BJP’s aspirations alive.
According to post-election polls undertaken by psephologists in Kerala, the proportion of devoted voters for both the LDF and the UDF has decreased significantly.
“In the 2000s, each party, such as Congress and CPI(M), had roughly 25 to 30% of dedicated voters.” Yet, throughout the 20116-2021 elections, we saw a decrease in the proportion of dedicated voters. It has now dropped to 15% to 20%,” Sajad Ibrahim remarked.
He claims that the problem of diminishing devoted voters is more serious in Congress, but it also affects the CPM.
“Voters are growing more indifferent and disassociating themselves from ideologies,” Sajad remarked.
The BJP is banking on this neutral voter base to get to the 5,000 to 8,000 votes that determine the outcome of an Assembly seat.
CPI(M) believes that although the statistics seem little, they are very difficult to get.
“The difference between the LDF and the UDF has never exceeded 1 lakh or 2 lakh votes in the whole state.” “A difference of three lakh votes would be a landslide win,” Isaac stated.
According to him, the gap between LDF and UDF is tight, and a third front would have a tough time capturing that little difference.
Isaac’s idea is supported by MM Hassan, convenor of the United Democratic Front (UDF).
“Where is the opportunity for the BJP to win anything when the gap between the LDF and UDF is so tiny and when both big political fronts are fighting one other?” MM Hassan inquired.
According to Hassan, the UDF is aware of the BJP’s attempts to recruit minorities, particularly Christians.
“They are attempting to entice Christians by speaking with church leaders and everyone.” Yet, Christians in Kerala are well aware that the same BJP is targeting Christians in other areas of the nation,” Hassan, a senior Congress activist, pointed out.
Yet, according to George Kurien, the Modi government’s twin engine development plan may win over the hearts of the youth, and the party’s strategy to popularize these initiatives among the people of Kerala would pay great rewards for the party.
“Anil K Antony is only the beginning,” Kurien remarked, adding that the BJP would get many more members in the coming days.
Former MP A P Abdulla Kutty and Alphonse Kannanthanam, a former Left Legislator, are among the notable figures from minority groups who have joined the saffron party.