The desire of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party to win power in Kerala, where the two main political formations—one headed by the governing CPI(M) and the other by the opposition Congress—are the principal actors, was revealed a month ago. On March 2, Modi unveiled his vision for Kerala, encouraged by the BJP’s electoral success in Nagaland and Meghalaya, two states with significant Christian populations. Anil K Antony, the son of seasoned Congressman and former Kerala Chief Minister A K Antony, joined the saffron party four weeks later, shocking its political enemies in the southern state.
The BJP is now claiming that more members of the Christian and Muslim communities would join the party in the coming days as a result of Kerala’s drastically altered political climate, positioning him as one of its key minority faces in the southern state. The CPI(M) and the Congress disagree, claiming that Modi’s hopes of seizing control of “God’s Own Country” would never come true. The BJP is working extremely hard to gain traction in the SC/ST and OBC communities in addition to focusing on minorities because they are aware that they will need to take a different approach in Kerala than they have in the North Indian states if they are to come anywhere close to achieving the goals set by the Prime Minister.
According to Dr. Sajad Ibrahim, a renowned psyhologist and professor of political science at Kerala University, “BJP is expanding in Kerala election after election.” He quickly clarifies, however, that Kerala’s over 50% minority vote would prevent the BJP from making any significant gains. He also emphasised how the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is headed by the BJP, has been unable to win over any significant political party in Kerala, which is another key factor in why the BJP has been unsuccessful in Kerala. BJP is in charge of two municipalities and 19 grama panchayats in the southern state even though it does not have a single seat in the Kerala Assembly or a member of the Lok Sabha.
“Kerala’s political landscape has undergone a significant transformation. As of late, Shri Anil Antony, the son of A K Antony, has joined the Bharatiya Janata Party. So many people, particularly from minority groups, are prepared to join the BJP “According to George Kurien, BJP’s general secretary for Kerala, PTI.
The BJP has long recognised that they need the votes of minorities, SC/STs, and OBCs in order to succeed in Kerala and that they cannot gain seats just on the basis of factional support from the upper castes. Although though the CPI(MEzhava )’s group, which has a sizable population, has grown its share of votes for the party since 2016, the minority votes for the BJP remain below 1%. “The BJP has made the decision to mobilise the populace. As part of our current “people connect” initiative, we visit every home in our neighbourhood or have family gatherings in groups of at least ten homes to raise awareness “K Sasikumar, the BJP’s vice president for the Nemom seat, stated.
Using the Sabarimala women admittance issue, the BJP might significantly reduce the CPI(M) vote share during the 2019 General Elections. But, the CPI(M) is now sure that the majority of people who left the party and cast ballots for the BJP in the 2019 elections have joined it once again. Senior CPI(M) politician and former Kerala finance minister Thomas Isaac remarked, “We have now learned that they are targeting our base too, which is primarily the scheduled caste and backward class in Kerala. Nonetheless, Isaac said that the BJP would never genuinely gain ground in Kerala since the Hindu majority there does not support the party’s communist doctrine. He said that it is incorrect to claim that minorities are preventing the BJP from advancing politically and that instead, the Hindu community is the root of their difficulties.
“The Hindu community in Kerala has a very distinct ethos. They have always been a fairly secular group, and they have never been communal in that manner “explained Isaac. The BJP’s expectations are, however, being sustained by a shift in the makeup of the general electorate. According to post-election studies done in Kerala by psephologists, the proportion of devoted voters for both the LDF and UDF has significantly decreased. “Each party, including Congress and CPI(M), had between 25 and 30 percent of dedicated voters throughout the 2000s. But most recently, during the 20116–2021 elections, we saw a fall in the proportion of dedicated voters. Now, just 15 to 20 percent remain “explained Sajad Ibrahim.
He said that although CPM too has the problem of dwindling dedicated voters, it affects Congress more severely. Voters are shifting away from ideology and becoming more indifferent, according to Sajad. The BJP is placing its faith in this base of impartial voters because it is more concerned with reaching the 5,000–8,000 votes needed to determine the outcome in an Assembly seat. Nonetheless, CPI(M) believes that while the statistics seem little, they are really exceedingly challenging to compile. “Throughout the whole state, the difference between LDF and UDF has never exceeded one or two lakh votes. A win by three lakh votes would be overwhelming “added Isaac. He said that the gap between LDF and UDF is small, and it would be very difficult for a third front to gain that little advantage.
The United Democratic Front (UDF) convenor MM Hassan concurs with Isaac’s thesis. “Where is the opportunity for BJP to win anything when the gap between the LDF and UDF is so tiny and when both major political fronts are fighting one other?” M. Hassan enquired. According to Hassan, who spoke to PTI, the UDF is aware of the BJP’s attempts to win over minorities, particularly Christians. “Through conversing with church leaders and other people, they are attempting to seduce Christians. But, Kerala’s Christians are fully aware that the same BJP is persecuting Christians everywhere in the nation “Hassan, a seasoned Congressman, made this observation. George Kurien, however, believes that the Modi administration’s double-engine development approach may win over the hearts of young people and that the BJP would profit much from its strategy to popularise these programmes among the people of Kerala.
Anil K. Antony is only the beginning, according to Kurien, who also predicted that many more people would join the BJP soon. The saffron party has previously enlisted several well-known figures from minority groups, including former Left Legislator Alphonse Kannanthanam and former MP A P Abdulla Kutty.
