We have heard about love triangles in movies and web series but here we are going to discuss an imaginary hate triangle. In a love triangle, two people love the same person, but here two people hate the same person. India is that person in the spotlight hated by two of the most well-known haters. This triangular relationship of mutual hate under the disguise of building friendships has been an old story. Due to disagreements between two of the SCO’s three main members, the current ministerial meeting is exceptionally contentious by the standards of such multilateral gatherings. Or, if you think it would be more appropriate, because the host, one of its three important components, disagrees with the other two.
Defy the urge to assert that things change and remain the same at the same time. Indeed, some things never change, such as India’s strategic suffocation in the China-Pakistan pincer. Dr Manmohan Singh has characterised this as a simple instance of China employing Pakistan as a low-cost tool to “triangulate” India. Beyond that, a lot has changed since he gave Narendra Modi the keys.
An excellent time to assess what has changed and what hasn’t is during this SCO conference. Now let’s concentrate on the three sides of our triangle. Then, we’ll look further than this as well. Analysing the Comprehensive National Power (CNP) evolution of each of the three neighbours throughout the post-2014 decade is a good place to start. By the way, Chinese discourse is where we get the idea of CNP from. Just over thirty years ago, the expression’s original Chinese form (zhonghe guoli) first appeared in publications coming out of Beijing.
As you might expect, this considers a variety of elements, not all of which are empirical or quantifiable, such as the size and growth of the economy, the stability and cohesiveness of society, the military’s might and capabilities, trade, and soft power. However, it can be difficult to quantify these things and turn them into rankings or numbers. Pakistan, for instance, would be virtually nothing now based on most measurements. But where will it stand with more than 200 nuclear weapons and a sizeable army? Then, consider it solely from India’s perspective. Pakistan isn’t as complete a cypher as many in India would have liked thanks to its nukes and nuisance value. Therefore, the factors that determine a country’s CNP are also determined by how they impact their allies, enemies, and neighbours.
Since the night before the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, Pakistan has never been weaker than it is right now. It is governed by a coalition that gives the appearance that it was elected by the people, but which has even less legitimacy than the autocrat Zia-ul-Haq did in 1979. Zia’s word was the law. Shehbaz Sharif’s or his Cabinet, no one will say that. If you accept the IMF, which some people regard to be optimistic, the economy is bankrupt and the annual growth rate is only 0.5 per cent. Next year, it could rise to almost 2%. Islamabad should be concerned about the rate at which the income gap between Pakistan and not only India but the entire Subcontinent is growing at the moment. It defeated its own most valuable ally in 65 years in Afghanistan, winning a suicide, ego, and ideology-driven victory, and is now left with almost no cards on the strategic negotiating table. If Pakistan’s geographic location was its most valuable resource, it has wasted it by supporting the Taliban in their absurd quest for strategic depth.
The Arabs of the Gulf no longer base their regional policy decisions on their adherence to Sunni Islam. They are impatient with Pakistan’s persistent demands. Due to this, Pakistan is now merely a vassal state of China. And even there, there is a difficulty. Because a new, far more powerful vassal must share that tent with it. It’s Russia, and China values it far more. Almost nothing is going well for Pakistan at the moment. India is the only card it has left to play. It is beneficial to China to keep India’s military engaged, if not completely off-balance. That has significant value for China. Beyond that, their complaints, demands, and repeated moral outrage have grown old to the rest of the world. We’ll get to what this implies for India later. China is the whole opposite. Using four decades of phenomenal growth, Xi Jinping has defined Chinese power in the last ten years in his name and according to his authoritarian ideology. It has been able to narrow the gap with the US and the other larger Western powers and widen it with the rest of the world, especially India, thanks to advancements in technology, trade, military might, social cohesion, and expanding global prominence. which is the only thing that matters to us.
The conflict in Ukraine has had mixed strategic effects on China. Overall, probably more negative than positive. It dismantles the BRI’s plans for the time being, weakens its key ally, and unites the West. The dependence of Russia on China is positive. Unfortunately, on no parameter of CNP can India credibly be considered to have closed the gap with China in any 2014–24 projection. India has had amazing growth in many areas, and there are many positive developments taking place, such as the extensive new construction of substantial physical infrastructure. ports, airports, power, and so forth. Despite the pandemic, the management of the fisc and deficits has been a major plus, and the growth rate is still the highest for a large economy in the world. The inherited difference, though, was too large, China isn’t slowing down, and even if India grows more quickly right now, the gap between the two will widen. The reality that China’s GDP is larger than India’s by a factor of five cannot be changed. The disparity will widen even if Chinese growth slows to less than half that of India, which is a grim fact.
Military differences aside, China has purposefully driven us closer to the frontiers in terms of strength. India’s military is being completely stretched along both borders during this procedure. I’m looking for a period in our history where we were as operationally engaged on both frontiers, but I can’t find one. The issue is that India has no initiative to grab militarily in this equation, other than to wait in case the other side moves. Meanwhile, Bhutan, one of our key neighbours, is involved in those moves. This brings us to a point we are accustomed to. since we have been there for more than 60 years. What would Narendra Modi say about India’s CNP and strategic positioning in his self-evaluation report in his tenth and final year as prime minister? The CNP’s image quality is decent. India is a rare success story of a nation that attained such great power well before it became wealthy. None of this is a gift from God. Modi and his administration deserve some praise for how they handled the greater national interest.
Modi may want to reflect on the so-called triangle between China, Pakistan, and India, which he inherited from the UPA since it represents the greatest geopolitical challenge facing India. the gradual suffocation caused by a stationary pincer. It’s worth thinking back on how we weren’t able to escape it or even just relax a little. As he nears the end of his ten-year term in office, you wouldn’t think that maintaining India’s strategic status quo from 2014 was on his list of KRAs. While the two are busy hating, India has spent time loving herself and other nations where we have created a special place for ourselves internationally. It’s time the haters know that they are living in a fool’s paradise which is only going to destroy them in return. Because India is not a part of the triangle in reality. China and Pakistan are two ends of many crooked lines, assumed to be a triangle. We need not worry about the haters. They are just angry because the truth we speak contradicts the lie they live
