The rupee lost value against the US dollar for the fourth consecutive day, ending the day 16 paise down at its all-time low of 83.32, mostly as a result of risk aversion in international markets and increasing crude oil prices.
Additionally, according to forex dealers, a strong US dollar relative to major competitor currencies and a downward trend in local stocks dampened investor enthusiasm.
“Ahead of the crucial central bank policy pronouncements expected for later this week, the rupee came under pressure and hit new record lows. Although it is anticipated that the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates steady, the market will be influenced by the governor’s remarks, according to Gaurang Somaiya, a bullion and FX analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
The local unit started trading at 83.09 against the dollar on the interbank foreign exchange and fluctuated between 83.09 and 83.32.
The rupee eventually dropped 16 paise from its previous close to settle at a historic low of 83.32 versus the dollar.
The rupee depreciated 13 paise on Friday, ending the day at 83.16 versus the US dollar.
The dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six other currencies, decreased little to 105.20, down 0.11 percent.
The benchmark for world oil, Brent crude futures, was up 0.42 percent at $94.32 a barrel.
Before the vacation, the rupee hit yet another record low due to risk-averse attitudes and a rise in crude oil prices, according to HDFC Securities Research Analyst Dilip Parmar.
Following a series of central bank policy rate meetings in both developed and developing market countries, this week will continue to be quite turbulent. The dollar must maintain its strength throughout the week, according to Parmar.
Spot $/INR is anticipated to surpass its previous high in the near future and may reach a range of 83.50 to 83.70 while still holding support around 83, according to Parmar.
The BSE Sensex fell 241.79 points, or 0.36 percent, to conclude at 67,596.84 points on the domestic equities market, while the wider Nifty fell 59.05 points, or 0.29 percent, to finish at 20,133.30 points.
Forex dealers said a number of variables, including high crude oil prices, a strong US dollar, outflows of foreign funds, and a growing trade imbalance, might be blamed for the rupee’s decline.
According to exchange statistics, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 1,236.51 crore on Monday, making them net sellers in the capital market.
“The Bank of England will also issue its policy statement in addition to the US Federal Reserve, which might cause volatility for the pound. We anticipate that the $/INR (Spot) will move favorably and quote between 83.05 and 83.50, according to Somaiya.
According to official statistics released on Friday, India’s exports decreased by 6.86% to $34.48 billion in August from $37.02 billion in the same month previous year.
Additionally, imports fell by 5.23% to $58.64 billion from $61.88 billion in August 2022, a decrease of 5.23 percent.
The Reserve Bank of India said on Friday that India’s foreign exchange reserves decreased by $4.992 billion to $593.904 billion for the week ending September 8.
The fund increased to $598.897 billion from $4.039 billion the previous reporting week.
“Risk aversion in global markets and increasing crude oil prices will cause the rupee to trade with a modest negative bias, according to our expectations. The rupee may see selling pressure from FIIs as well, according to Anuj Choudhary, a research analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.
However, the rupee may be supported at lower levels by any Reserve Bank of India action and healthy domestic markets.
Ahead of the US FOMC meeting later this week, traders could continue to be cautious. The $/INR spot price is anticipated to fluctuate between Rs 82.80 and Rs 83.80, according to Choudhary.
