PUNE: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has updated its long-range forecast for the monsoon season, indicating below-normal rainfall across most of Maharashtra from June to September. However, the Konkan region is an exception, where there is an equal probability of below-normal, normal, or above-normal rainfall.
While there is uncertainty regarding the onset date of the monsoon in Maharashtra, experts and top agriculture department officials suggest that farmers should commence kharif sowing only after their respective areas receive 75-100 mm of rainfall.
Dr. D. S. Pai, head of the Environment Monitoring and Research Center (EMRC) at the IMD, New Delhi, stated that although central India, including Maharashtra, is likely to receive normal rainfall, regions like Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, and Vidarbha might experience below-normal monsoon precipitation this year. In the Konkan region, where normal rainfall levels are already high, the impact is expected to be minimal.
Dr. Pai added, “While the monsoon onset over Kerala is anticipated around June 4, it is challenging to determine whether the onset over Maharashtra will be delayed. However, the onset date and the total rainfall in a region do not have a direct correlation.”
He further advised farmers not to rush into kharif sowing based solely on the initial rainfall of the monsoon. Instead, they should ensure that a consistent spell of rainfall persists for a week to 10 days before initiating sowing activities. Additionally, farmers should make informed decisions based on extended range forecasts and agricultural advisories issued for Maharashtra.
Dr. Akshay Deoras, an Indian weather expert and research scientist at the University of Reading, UK, mentioned that multiple climate models have consistently indicated the possibility of below-average rainfall in most parts of Maharashtra during June and the entire monsoon season. The IMD’s updated monsoon forecast aligns with these predictions.
Coastal areas of Konkan are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, but interior regions such as Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, and Vidarbha may face deficits. These areas might also experience above-normal maximum temperatures in the first half of June. Dr. Deoras cautioned farmers against hasty sowing after pre-monsoon showers in early June, as it could lead to sowing failures.
A senior official from the state agricultural department emphasized that kharif sowing should not be attempted until the respective areas receive 75-100 mm of rainfall. This advice is particularly crucial for drought-prone areas like Marathwada and Vidarbha, as adequate soil moisture is essential before initiating sowing activities.
Kailas Dakhore, an agro-meteorologist at Vasantrao Naik Marathwada Agricultural University, who has been assisting the state agriculture department in issuing advisories to farmers, stated that the kharif sowing window for crops such as soybean and cotton is from June 15 to July 15. Sowing during the kharif season is recommended when an area receives 75-100 mm of rain. However, if there is a forecast indicating heavy rain or a prolonged dry spell following the initial rainfall, sowing is not advised. Farmers will receive appropriate advisories regarding the optimal time to begin sowing once the monsoon onset in Maharashtra becomes more certain.
